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. QUANTO COSTA NUCLEAR ENERGY
Ing Paolo Mazzanti, NETWORK OF CITIZENS
forecast global growth in the coming years the demand for electricity is currently near zero, with the exception of China, India and perhaps Russia and Brazil, given their current rapid industrial development. In Italy it is expected zero growth in demand, both for the effects of energy saving, the economic situation. The availability of electrical power is double the current maximum demand. This suggests that
we have no need for new power plants of any kind .
If we tackle the topic kwatt cost / time, nuclear stations would be proposed, even if you need more power. In fact, even with approximate data, because they are currently building prototypes of a few nuclear power plants (only two in Europe), we analyzed the main elements of cost, namely:
- material costs (70% of foreign origin, and little work Italian);
- construction time (under 4 years, already slipped more than 6 years, but the buildings are not finished!)
- useful life allowed by the regulations from 40 to 60 years (billion needed to increase it);
- discount rate on capital;
- energy efficiency (Less than 40%);
- actual hours of operation (the nuclear must also be stopped for maintenance of months);
- cost of capital.
The deductions are made by bodies such as the DOE (U.S. Department of Energy), MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and other irrefutable Institutes of world renown, are the kilowatt hour from nuclear power today at a cost of about 10 % lower than that of gas-fired plants, but in rising every year by 15% and then, when they were activated nuclear power plants, the cost would be much higher than any other system.
addition to the plan suggested the return of nuclear energy in Italy are about 10 power plants, needed to cover the expected 25% of the total power: at today's prices it comes to spending over 70 billion euros, plus the cost today almost invaluable disposal and preservation of the remains of slag and future of the plant itself (which must be "reconditioned" mid-life) but certainly more than 20 billion euros. Who would pay for similar figures? And what would we do of existing modern gas-fired plants, which for the "surplus" aforesaid are rarely used?
In support of above cost estimates, governments are drastically reducing support for nuclear, encouraging research, development and activation of renewable systems. The U.S. has reduced to 1 / 10 support for nuclear (che non vengono più costruite o sono addirittura sospese a metà costruzione), l’Inghilterra lo ha azzerato, mentre l’Unione Europea ha aumentato i finanziamenti alle rinnovabili da 3,3 miliardi di Euro (2004) a 11,5 (2010).
Il CESE (Comitato Economico e Sociale Europeo), consulente della CEE, prevede infine che entro il 2030 l’energia prodotta da nucleare si ridurrà del 40%. La nazione più coinvolta del nucleare, cioè la Francia, riduce ora la “dipendenza” dallo stesso (7%) e sta facendo accordi con grandi gruppi internazionali per gasdotti (!), mente la sua azienda più specializzata nel nucleare (Areva) sta dedicando una sua divisione alle rinnovabili (Sun and wind).
Italy may then in small steps (costs) to have to replace old power stations with renewables, such as the European Union asks us to reduce the emission of polluting gases. The hypothesized
back in Italy in the nuclear conclusion does not make sense for the Italians, but only for those who have other interests and moreover should not provide state aid, because the Law 122 of 30/07/2010, the government has decreed not to spend one Euro for these types of financing. The only likely to be affected, except of course the French company Areva, ENEL may be, but at his own expense is hard to believe, given its strong balance sheet debt (a fine 2009 pari a 51 miliardi). Quindi lasciamo perdere il nucleare!
P.S.: molta documentazione su questo argomento è ricavata dalla ricchissima bibliografia, presente nella pubblicazione “Si fa presto a dire nucleare” del Prof. A. Clò, docente all’Università di Bologna, che ringrazio vivamente.
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